Petrochemicals – of which plastics are the dominant output – now account for roughly 75% of net global oil-demand growth, and are projected to become the largest driver of future oil demand. Plastic production has already doubled in the past two decades. Major oil companies are responding accordingly. Recent consolidation – including a $60bn merger creating one of the world’s largest plastics producers – reflects a deliberate pivot toward petrochemical assets as a long-term demand anchor.
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But what if it’s not fine? Even back in 1996, before a single component of the ISS was launched into orbit, NASA foresaw the possibility of an even worse worst-case scenario: an uncontrolled reentry. The crux of this scenario involves multiple systems failing in an improbable but not completely impossible cascade. Cabin depressurization could damage the avionics. The electrical power system could go offline, along with thermal control and data handling. Without these, systems controlling coolant and even propellant could break down. Unmoored, the ISS would edge slowly toward Earth, maybe over a year or two, with no way to control where it is headed or where its debris might land. And no, we could not save ourselves by blowing the station up. This would be extremely dangerous and almost certainly create an enormous amount of space trash—which is how we got into this hypothetical mess in the first place.
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